Table of Contents

Respiratory Handbook 2005-15 - Novartis Moving Into the Major League - Key metrics are provided covering growth prospects for the respiratory market, including leading classes and products by current and forecast sales to 2015, with a focus on company capabilities, portfolio growth strategies and key success factors.

Product Code: bfhc0692

Publication Date: 20-Jun-2005

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Overview

Introduction

Each company's portfolio is listed with and overview of R&D strategy, product forecasts to 2015 for launched and pipeline products with insight into the future development strategies of the key players. Key metrics are provided, covering overall growth prospects from the respiratory market, including leading classes and products by current and forecast sales to 2015.

Scope

· The respiratory market is defined to include the three major indications, namely asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and allergic rhinitis

· Companies covered include AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck & Co, Pfizer, Sanofi-Aventis, Schering-Plough and Novartis

· Each company's respiratory franchise is forecast from 2005 to 2015

· Leading classes and products by current and forecast sales to 2015

Report Highlights

The respiratory market is dominated by seven multinational drug companies with combined 2004 revenues of $18.7 billion representing 73% of total respiratory sales. GlaxoSmithKline is the global leader with sales in excess of $7.0 billion in 2004, with Pfizer increasing its share of sales in COPD through partnership with Boehringer Ingelheim.

In 2004, GSK outsold its nearest rival, Merck, by $4.5 billion and by 2015 it will widen this gap to over $7 billion, driven by sales of the novel once-daily combination product "Super Advair" which will account for over half of total sales in the respiratory portfolio, valued at $8.8 billion.

Novartis's portfolio will grow to $1.8 billion in 2015, moving the company for a minor player to one of the top three major respiratory companies by building on the success of Xolair and having a first-mover advantage in the high-value dual-action, once-daily inhaled bronchodilator market.

Reasons to Purchase

· Benchmark key players in the respiratory therapeutic area

· Assess marketed products in terms of current and forecasted sales to 2015

· Predict the future direction of the respiratory market based on R&D products

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CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY	3
Objective of the analysis	3
Datamonitor insight into the disease market	3
Market definition for this report	4
CHAPTER 2 THE WORLD MARKET	8
Global pharmaceutical market valued at $550 billion	8
Respiratory is the seven largest therapeutic category	9
Antihistamines and ICS/LABA combinations account for 40% of respiratory sales	11
Asthma/COPD products-Seretide/Advair is the fourth largest brand in the world	15
Allergic rhinitis products-top five drugs account for 62% of sales	18
CHAPTER 3 FUTURE MARKET DYNAMICS	20
Respiratory market grows to $27 billion by 2015	20
Asthma/COPD: pipeline gains balance patent expiry losses	21
Allergic rhinitis: GSK's Allermist-the last blockbuster	26
CHAPTER 4 COMPANY PROFILES	28
Seven companies account for 73% of respiratory sales	28
GlaxoSmithKline	31
Pfizer	33
Boehringer Ingelheim	35
AstraZeneca	37
Merck	40
Schering-Plough	42
Sanofi-Aventis	44
Novartis	46
CHAPTER 5 APPENDIX	49
Asthma/COPD sales mix-what are asthma and COPD products used for?	49
Launch forecast methodology	50
References	51
List of Tables
Table 1: Global pharmaceutical sales, market share and growth by region, 2004	8
Table 2: Pharmaceutical sales, market share and growth by therapeutic category in seven major markets, 2004	10
Table 3: Performance of respiratory classes in asthma, COPD and allergic rhinitis in the seven major markets, 2004	13
Table 4: Top ten asthma/COPD brands in the seven major markets, 2004	17
Table 5: Top 10 allergic rhinitis brands in the seven major markets, 2004	19
Table 6: Top 10 brands in asthma/COPD, 2015	26
Table 7: Top 10 allergic rhinitis brands, 2015	27
Table 8: Company performance in the respiratory market, 2003-04	29
Table 9: GlaxoSmithKline's respiratory portfolio performance, 2005-15	31
Table 10: Pfizer's respiratory portfolio performance, 2005-15	33
Table 11: Boehringer Ingelheim's respiratory portfolio performance, 2005-15	35
Table 12: AstraZeneca's respiratory portfolio performance, 2005-15	38
Table 13: Merck's respiratory portfolio performance, 2005-15	40
Table 14: Schering-Plough's respiratory portfolio performance, 2005-15	42
Table 15: Sanofi-Aventis's respiratory portfolio performance, 2005-15	44
Table 16: Novartis's respiratory portfolio performance, 2005-15	46
Table 17: Critical success factors by company	48
Table 18: Estimated sales mix of asthma and COPD products	49
Table 19: Average clinical development times for respiratory drugs	50
List of Figures
Figure 1: Global pharmaceutical sales, market share and growth by region, 2004	9
Figure 2: Pharmaceutical sales and growth by therapeutic category in the seven major markets, 2004	11
Figure 3: Relative growth and market share by therapeutic category in the seven major markets, 2004	12
Figure 4: Relative growth and market share of respiratory classes in the seven major markets, 2004	14
Figure 5: Comparative sales and market share for asthma/COPD and allergic rhinitis by class, in US and 5EU, 2004	15
Figure 6: Top ten brands by sales in global market, 2004	16
Figure 7: Relative growth and market share of asthma/COPD brands in seven major markets, 2004	18
Figure 8: Brand performance of allergic rhinitis products in the seven major markets, 2004	19
Figure 9: Growth in respiratory market by indication in the seven major markets, 2004-15	20
Figure 10: Sales of marketed and pipeline asthma/COPD products, 2005-15	21
Figure 11: Asthma : Current blockbusters, limitations and innovative approaches	22
Figure 12: Asthma pipeline: most competitive products in oral and severe asthma categories	23
Figure 13: Development of drug classes, 1950-2000 and beyond	24
Figure 14: COPD: current blockbusters, limitations and innovative approaches	25
Figure 15: COPD pipeline: market will develop rapidly from 2010	25
Figure 16: Allergic rhinitis: current blockbusters, limitations and innovative approaches	27
Figure 17: Company performance in the respiratory market, 2003-04	28
Figure 18: Sales ranking by company, 2005 and 2015	30

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