Table of Contents

Digital TV Markets 2005 - This report analyzes the development of digital TV in Europe and the US through to 2009.

Product Code: dmtc1018

Publication Date: 27-Jul-2005

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Overview

Introduction

This report studies the growth of digital TV in Europe and the US - from 2004 to 2009. It reviews the key platforms of satellite, terrestrial and cable as well as the emerging IPTV services. The leading operators in each market are also discussed and their subscribers are forecast. There is also an analysis and forecast of the PVR market in each country.

Scope

· It analyzes the leading broadcast operators in 15 markets, via primary and secondary research plus proprietary databases.

· It analyzes developments in each country in the past twelve months, and expected developments during the forecast period.

Report Highlights

Datamonitor forecasts that Europe will overtake the US as the most digitally penetrated TV market during 2006, driven primarily by the terrestrial platforms.

US satellite operator DirecTV will remain the operator with the largest number of digital subscribers in 2009. While in Europe, BSkyB in the UK, will hold the leadership position.

Reasons to Purchase

· This report will help digital TV equipment manufacturers to understand which operators are growing strongest and who will need equipment next.

· It will help channel operators better understand which platform to try and join due to their faster growth profiles.

· It will assist broadcasters or financiers as they seek to purchase or sell channels or businesses.

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CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY	3
Introduction	3
Market context	3
Digital cable overview	4
Digital satellite overview	4
Digital terrestrial overview	4
IPTV overview	4
Overview of key operators	5
IPTV: does the pay-TV market need a fourth platform?	5
PVRs: popular but installed base growing only slowly	5
Operator consolidation, an annual trend	5
HDTV: Europe still lagging far behind the US	6
VOD penetration low, but IPTV providers to invest heavily	6
TV to the mobile phone: how much TV can people watch?	6
Competitive dynamics	7
CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION	20
What is this report about?	20
How to use this report	20
CHAPTER 3 MARKET CONTEXT	21
Introduction	21
Key findings	21
Market development comparison	22
Europe to be larger digital TV market than US by 2006	24
Europe driven by satellite and DTT, the US market by satellite and cable	25
Digital cable overview	27
IPTV rollouts to enforce competitive investment	27
Digital satellite overview	29
US slowing but not stopped yet	29
Digital terrestrial television (DTT) overview	31
The US an accidental market	31
IPTV overview	33
Some telcos buying sports rights	33
US set to dominate	33
Leading digital TV operators overview	35
Even split on a platform basis	35
US leads on a country basis	35
IPTV: does the pay-TV market need a fourth platform?	37
Massive US investments, conservative European plans	37
Technology issues persist	37
The critical question: is there demand?	38
Pricing to play a crucial role	38
Europe to lead the US in terms of market size	39
Arrival of IPTV to speed up the slow growth of digital cable?	40
PVRs: popularity grows and ad watching declines further	40
Only a pay-TV product?	41
Likely to watch more TV programs	41
Changes required in advertising models	41
US to account for 84% of PVR installed base in 2009	42
Operator consolidation remains an annual trend	43
Action in the US	44
Liberty Media International + UGC + UPC = Liberty Global	44
Rumors in Europe	44
Finally some consolidation in the German cable market	45
UGC Europe: the European cable consolidator	45
Spanish cable to finally offer DIGITAL+ a coordinated threat	46
HDTV: to become the key differentiator in Europe?	46
A niche product in the early days	46
HD not as appealing in Europe as in the US?	47
Video-on-demand: not a satellite killer yet	47
PVRs and VOD, complementary products?	49
Football rights - EU competition commission plays hardball	49
TV to the mobile phone: how much TV can people watch?	50
Trials across Europe	50
CHAPTER 4 COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS	52
Introduction	52
Key findings	52
Austria: UPC to single-handedly drive digitalization?	54
UPC to enhance dominance in cable market?	54
Premiere boosted by football highlight delay	54
Telekom Austria set to launch IPTV in 2006	55
DTT to launch in 2006	55
Belgium: IPTV to shakeup the analog cable market?	57
Belgacom launches IPTV with key content rights	57
Acquires Belgian and Italian football rights, but not Formula 1	57
Liberty Global to acquire control of Telenet?	58
Telenet launches iDTV	58
DTT to never launch?	58
France: DTT finally, and successfully, launches	60
High expectations for DTT	60
CanalSatellite wins exclusive football rights	61
Expected change in CanalSatellite's parents to benefit growth	61
IPTV success growing?	61
TPS first in Europe to broadcast in HD?	62
UGC catapults into cable lead with Noos acquisition	62
Germany: DTT deploying far beyond expectations	64
A cable acquisition is finally approved	64
Premiere focused on new technology	64
Changes to the football rights to alter the landscape?	65
DTT: as successful as could be	66
DTT to gain market share?	66
Italy: DTT to beat satellite at its own game: football content	68
Strong demand for DTT - driven by football	68
Pricing to increase this year	68
Telecom Italia to give FASTWEB some competition	69
Rai heads to the stock market	69
SKY Italia facing unexpected challenge	70
Netherlands: UPC and IPTV set to re-energize digital TV	72
UPC to provide free digital STBs to all customers	72
Casema and Essent Kabelcom to react?	72
Versatel secures Dutch football league	72
KPN to launch IPTV in second half of 2005	73
Canal Digitaal sold to a private equity group	73
DTT growth remains slow	73
The Nordics	75
Canal Digital and Viasat compete across the region	75
Denmark: TDC Kabel TV to transform the market?	76
Denmark: TDC Kabel TV to transform the market?	76
Aggressive rollout plans from TDC Kabel TV	76
TDC trialling IPTV, launching in late 2005	76
DTT launching in 2005?	76
Finland: DTT dominates the digital TV market	78
Strong growth at Digita	78
Challenge from Canal Digital's "ComboBox"?	78
Alcom launches the first IPTV service	78
Helsinki TV leads European cable with HDTV	78
Norway: a leading market for IPTV providers	80
Slow movement in the the fragmented cable market	80
DTT delays continue	80
Sweden: the digital leader in the Nordics	82
Strong DTT platform growth leads to regional switch-off	82
Canal Digital accesses MTG content	82
UPC to provide a free digital upgrade?	83
Telenor breaks into Swedish IPTV market	83
Portugal: bringing up the European tail	85
Portugal Telecom holds all the cards	85
No signs of DTT	85
Spain: government set to confuse consumers over DTT	87
Papá Noël bringing DTT to Spain	87
New analog channels will confuse consumers	87
Switch-off moving from 2012 to 2010	88
Auna and ONO to finally merge?	88
DIGITAL+ reaches starting point	88
Early days for IPTV but competition	89
Switzerland: little sign of digital take-off	91
Strength of analog cable thwarts digital growth	91
cablecom leading the slow digital TV rollout	91
Swisscom delays its IPTV launch	92
DTT coverage widens, but limited market	92
UK: Europe's most competitive market and digital TV leader	94
ntl and Telewest merger a near-term reality	94
UK cable TV no longer the poor man's TV service	94
The slow birth of IPTV	95
Freeview strength continues	96
A marketing push from BSkyB to kick-start flagging sales	96
Still focused on technology	97
US: consolidation continues in a hyper-competitive market	99
SBC and Verizon announce aggressive IPTV plans	99
HDTV the big driver	100
Analog switch-off delayed until 2009?	100
Comcast and TimeWarner buy Adelphia	100
Comcast co-buys MGM to get content for its VOD service	101
Satellite growth finally peaking	101
High subscriber acquisition costs fuelled the growth	101
Conclusion	104
CHAPTER 5 APPENDIX	105
Definitions	113
Future readings	114
SPP writing team	114
List of Tables
Table 1: Market development comparison, 2004-2009	23
Table 2: Digital TV take-up comparison: Europe vs. US, 2004-2009	24
Table 3: Digital TV growth in Europe, 2004-2009	25
Table 4: Digital TV growth in the US, 2004-2009	26
Table 5: Digital cable overview	28
Table 6: Digital satellite overview	30
Table 7: Digital terrestrial television (DTT) overview	32
Table 8: Internet Protocol television (IPTV) overview	34
Table 9: The top twenty digital TV operators in Europe and US	36
Table 10: PVR forecast: Europe vs. US, 2004-2009	43
Table 11: US cable operators' VOD services today	48
Table 12: Digital TV growth in Austria, 2004-2009 (000s)	56
Table 13: Digital TV growth in Belgium, 2004-2009 (000s)	59
Table 14: Digital TV growth in France, 2004-2009 (000s)	63
Table 15: Digital TV growth in Germany, 2004-2009 (000s)	67
Table 16: Digital TV growth in Italy, 2004-2009 (000s)	71
Table 17: Digital TV growth in the Netherlands, 2004-2009 (000s)	74
Table 18: Digital TV growth at Canal Digital and Viasat, 2004-2009 (000s)	75
Table 19: Digital TV growth in Denmark, 2004-2009 (000s)	77
Table 20: Digital TV growth in Finland, 2004-2009 (000s)	79
Table 21: Digital TV growth in Norway, 2004-2009 (000s)	81
Table 22: Digital TV growth in Sweden, 2004-2009 (000s)	84
Table 23: Digital TV growth in Portugal, 2004-2009 (000s)	86
Table 24: Digital TV growth in Spain, 2004-2009 (000s)	90
Table 25: Digital TV growth in Switzerland, 2004-2009 (000s)	93
Table 26: Digital TV growth in the UK, 2004-2009 (000s)	98
Table 27: Digital TV growth in The US, 2004-2009 (000s)	103
Table 28: Digital TV growth in Austria, 2004-2009	105
Table 29: Digital TV growth in Belgium, 2004-2009	105
Table 30: Digital TV growth in France, 2004-2009	106
Table 31: Digital TV growth in Germany, 2004-2009	106
Table 32: Digital TV growth in Italy, 2004-2009	107
Table 33: Digital TV growth in the Netherlands, 2004-2009	107
Table 34: Digital TV growth in Denmark, 2004-2009	108
Table 35: Digital TV growth in Finland, 2004-2009	108
Table 36: Digital TV growth in Norway, 2004-2009	109
Table 37: Digital TV growth in Sweden, 2004-2009	109
Table 38: Digital TV growth in Portugal, 2004-2009	110
Table 39: Digital TV growth in Spain, 2004-2009	110
Table 40: Digital TV growth in Switzerland, 2004-2009	111
Table 41: Digital TV growth in the UK, 2004-2009	111
Table 42: Digital TV growth in the US, 2004-2009	112
List of Figures
Figure 1: Market development comparison, 2004-2009	3
Figure 2: Market development comparison, 2004-2009	22
Figure 3: Digital TV take-up comparison: Europe vs. US, 2004-2009	24
Figure 4: Digital TV growth in Europe, 2004-2009	25
Figure 5: Digital TV growth in the US, 2004-2009	26
Figure 6: Comparison of IPTV deployments, 2004-2009	39
Figure 7: Datamonitor's PVR forecast, 2004-2009	43
Figure 8: Digital TV growth in Austria, 2004-2009	56
Figure 9: Digital TV growth in Belgium, 2004-2009	59
Figure 10: Digital TV growth in France, 2004-2009	63
Figure 11: Digital TV growth in Germany, 2004-2009	67
Figure 12: Digital TV growth in Italy, 2004-2009	71
Figure 13: Digital TV growth in the Netherlands, 2004-2009	74
Figure 14: Digital TV growth in Denmark, 2004-2009	77
Figure 15: Digital TV growth in Finland, 2004-2009	79
Figure 16: Digital TV growth in Norway, 2004-2009	81
Figure 17: Digital TV growth in Sweden, 2004-2009	84
Figure 18: Digital TV growth in Portugal, 2004-2009	86
Figure 19: Digital TV growth in Spain, 2004-2009	90
Figure 20: Digital TV growth in Switzerland, 2004-2009	93
Figure 21: Digital TV growth in the UK, 2004-2009	97
Figure 22: Digital TV growth in the US, 2004-2009	102

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